Travel Industry Outlook

Our overall outlook for the travel industry is continued growth over the next several years, though the pace of growth for both domestic leisure and domestic business travel is expected to decelerate in line with the overall U.S. economy.

Meanwhile, we anticipate international inbound travel volume, after stalling in 2019, to recover in subsequent years, though we will continue to monitor headwinds, including the strong dollar, unstable global economies and trade tensions that could have an impact on growth and pace.

The full report also breaks down the impact of several macroeconomic trends on the travel industry, including:

• A continued decline in the U.S. share of global long-haul travel—down to 10.9% by 2022—despite an expected recovery in arrivals, due in part to the strength of the U.S. dollar and negative perceptions surrounding U.S. trade and immigration policies. This forecast underscores the importance of ensuring Brand USA's reauthorization through 2027.
• How a moderation in consumer and business confidence will have a similar effect on domestic leisure and business travel
• The relationship between decelerating business investment and corporate profits and slower domestic business travel growth

You can access the Forecast table here and read the full Forecast report here. Member login is required to access the full report.

In the fall, we expect additional data to be available from the U.S. Department of Commerce, and we will update this Forecast accordingly.